MD 2175 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 222056Z - 222300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated instance of hail or a brief tornado may
accompany the stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not
currently expected.
DISCUSSION...A pronounced MCV continues to slowly progress eastward
across IA, with widespread cloud cover and occasional bouts of
precipitation contaminating the warm sector. A west-to-east
baroclinic zone has been reinforced across eastern parts of IA, and
it is here where some of the latest high-resolution guidance depicts
isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon. Tropospheric lapse
rates are modest at best, but seasonable moisture (i.e. mid to upper
60s F surface dewpoints) are contributing to nearly 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. As such, an instance or two of hail may accompany the
stronger storms. Any storm that can sustain near the baroclinic zone
may also benefit from locally higher vertical-oriented vorticity to
support an isolated/brief tornado. Given the overall sparse storm
coverage expected this afternoon, a WW issuance is not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/22/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 42959200 42939156 42839121 42509086 41829084 41529102
41319145 41219198 41329262 41569279 41939280 42669251
42879211 42959200
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